Reflections on another cycle
Written by Dominic Moore April 2020
Having worked for more than 20 years, I can’t help but feel like I’ve seen this before - more than once in fact.
Now I know this time is different, this is a health war that has made the economy sick too, but there are things I remember from the last crisis, the GFC of 2008, that feel familiar (well, so far anyway). Here are my rambling thoughts:
A drop, in terms of the share market, job market, wealth, health, etc, feels sudden and juddering, confronting us with the reality that things cannot always go up and we cannot always assume that things will be better tomorrow than today. In some ways, this might just be the ‘universe’ flagging that perhaps a bit of hubris had crept into the everyday, so here is an event to remind us this just can’t continue onwards and upwards forever.
The bounce that inevitably comes after feels good but fragile: Is the worst now past? Do we go for growth again? What if confidence falls again? The bounce will happen at some point and these questions will come up - until enough time has passed for these to fade, for confidence to take over, and for the cycle to begin over again.
I was made redundant in October 2008. With my first child on the way and bills to pay, this was jolting. I don’t like saying this, as it makes me feel a bit ashamed. Why me? Why was I let go ahead of others? But I get it now, with reflection. Things were not good, and were not going to be good for some time, so my leader at the time had to make tough calls, to lighten the load and give the boat a chance to float for as long as possible.
Redundancies are happening in (what appears to be increasing) numbers again now, and it makes me feel sick in the stomach. Having been there myself I can relate. All I can do here though is say that from this something good may come. I can’t speak for all of course, but I have seen this time and time again - this may be the chance to try something new, change the game, focus on what you like doing more than the job that pays the bills but leaves you wanting at the end of day. I know this sounds easy, and it will be a tough and painful process to go through for many, but there is nothing better than a shock to the system to, in my experience, give us intense focus on what is important, both professionally and personally.
In terms of my world, that of recruitment, it's hard to know how this plays out from here. How long will a downturn last? Will the job market roar back to life once we are allowed to resume business as before? Will we return to business as before, or is this a fundamental shift in the way we work from now onward (the shift and mix of working from home versus being in the office)? Will the gig economy ramp up as the permanent market declines?
Like everyone I am speaking to at present, I don't have any answers on this last point. We can only predict that the past will repeat itself, in that companies will hire again, but I suspect this time around with a different lens: with more flexibility built in from the get-go and more focus on outcomes than time on the tools. These are uncertain and unsettling times for us all, yet a rare pause for reflection allowing us to consider how the world of work looks moving forward.